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The Role of Probability Author: Lisa Sullivan, PhD Professor of Biostatistics Boston University School of Public Health Introduction Probabilities are numbers that reflect the likelihood that a particular event will occur. We hear about probabilities in many every-day situations ranging from weather forecasts (probability of rain or snow) to the lottery (probability of hitting the big jackpot). In biostatistical applications, it is probability theory that underlies statistical inference. Statistical inference involves making generalizations or inferences about unknown population parameters. After selecting a sample from the population of interest, we measure the characteristic under study, summarize this characteristic in our sample and then make inferences about the population based on what we observe in the sample. In this module we will discuss methods of sampling, basic concepts of probability, and applications of probability theory. In subsequent modules we will discuss statistica...